CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS!

Morning,all.

We’ve just seen some strange events in a hugely Tory-dominated House of Commmons,where over 10% of the party’s MPs actually voted against their own party-risking the wrath of His Gollumness,Cummings-as well as saying goodbye to any shot at a ministerial post under the new Prime Minister Boris Johnston-a man known never to bear a grudge.

Lightly!

 

A few hours later,it was revealed that Department of Health minister,Nadine Dorries,had tested positive for COVID-19 and was self-isolating less than a week after being present a function at No 10 where Johnston was present. Don’t worry,Johnston will be fine. Nothing ever sticks to him. Immune to the lot.

 

So what has this got to do with Sentinel Celts,you might ask? Well,the common denominator is a fear of viruses of Chinese origin. In the first case,the fear is of using Chinese company Huawei in the roll-out of the 5G technology that we urgently need. Sadly there are strong suspicions that Huawei may be beholden to the Chinese governmental and military apparatus and that they may use this opportunity to “backdoor” their way to sensitive information such as listening into GCHQ at Cheltenham-even as they,as part of The Five Eyes,listen into everyone else.

 

(I’m pretty sure that GCHQ,just up the road from me,needs a specialised translator to listen into my calls,and as he is likely to spend most of his time in the pub-otherwise he wouldn’t be able to understand me anyway!-I should be ok. You lot are f…d,though)

 

The second case is the important one though. We have seen an explosion of COVID-19 cases across Europe and elsewhere since it was first identified at the tail end of last year in China. While China was able to use methods normally unavailable in a free society to curtail the spread,it was very late in admitting to it in the first place. As a result,South Korea has huge problems with it for instance,as do swathes of The Middle East,but the worst effects of it are being felt in Italy,where the entire country is-to use some licence here-effectively under house arrest. Other countries,such as Spain and France,are heavily restricting gatherings.

 

Such as football crowds. Aye,play behind closed doors,or possibly with a maximum of 1000 spectators.

 

And that’s where we come in. It may be true that flu kills approximately 600,000 people per year worldwide and that the casualty rate from this virus is less than 1% of that in two months or so,but its rate of contagion is alarming. It is also true that the people most at risk,in everyday environs,are the very young,the very elderly or the vulnerable due to pre-existing conditions where their immune system is already overloaded. And we have to be concerned for anyone who falls within those categories. But unless this contagion disappears overnight,we are almost certainly going to face restrictions on our footballing pleasure over the next few weeks and possibly months.

 

Last Wednesday,the UK had 52 cases. The total rose to 87 the following day. By Monday,less than a week later it was 372. A sevenfold increase in six days means that the rate of contagion is to double approximately every 54 hours. The government cannot risk that continuing,and there is little doubt that we too will soon face restrictions,even if that rate begins to drop.

 

So what about the fitba,Mick? We can read all this in the paper,I hear you ask. Well,it’s why Sunday is so important. We are well on course for our ninth successive triumph,despite the setback on December 29. We have 80 points from a total of 90 available to us so far. 2.67 points per match,a stunning average. The huns have 67 from 29,an average of 2.31. Win on Sunday and our average is little changed at 2.68 but theirs reduces to 2.23. Lose and those averages become 2.58 and 2.33.

 

There will by then have been more than 80% of the matches played. Do you see what I’m getting at here? We must not let that closing of the gap become an argument in favour of them actually winning it over the next 20% of games.

 

If there is a decision made at government level that football cannot continue for the entirety of this season,a decision will have to be made on how to deal with promotion and relegation. And with titles. I wouldn’t,for instance,like to be a Leeds United fan or even a Swindon Town fan denied promotion. And in horse racing and Formula 1,if a race cannot be completed it is declared void. Cricket use The Duckworth-Lewis Method,and football may do well to figure out its own version.

 

Fortunately,Liverpool are so far clear in England that there is a precedent. But only if they haven’t mathematically won the title beforehand! All in all,it’s a mess. And we know the SFA cannot make the correct decision even when presented with the facts and figures. But we can go a long long way on Sunday to making any attempt to withhold the award of our title an act of theft.

 

Sunday may well be our chance to doubly guarantee that title. Eyes on the prize,Celtic. It’s THAT important.


 
 
 

Above article by BMCUWP. There have been a number of terrific guest articles recently from various contributors. It’s an open forum,and we invite those contributions from you all. Mail yours to Mahe

sentinelcelts@gmail.com

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Mahe

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https://sentinelcelts.com/2020/03/09/cheltenham/

BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS

Howdy,folks.

I wrote this article yesterday morning for publication today,as waiting for Friday’s article would probably see it overtaken by events. As indeed it already has in some places. Italy has closed all outlets except pharmacies and those selling food,US has banned all flights from Europe,with the exception of the UK,the NBA season is on hold.

Etc,etc.

Dharma Bam

Great article.
I was sure I had read last week that the spfl had already agreed to award the title to Celtic in the event of covid-19 having more of an imapct.
I cant find it, so I must have imagined it.

For.me the jury is still out on 5G especially as preparations for it have knocked out our main 5 HD channels!

BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS

Brilliant,a hurting hun wi an intelligence deficit.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TamsellicsonIII/status/1237811969899532290

BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS

DHARMABAM

Cheers,mate. That’s why I rate Sunday as being so important. Take them out of the equation. We would be 16 clear,they would have eight games and we would have seven. They would need to get three points in every game,while hoping that we would draw one and lose four,when we’ve only lost two so far this season.

That’s like hoping Miss World wanders naked into your home and tells you she owns a pub anaw.

Twists n Turns

Bobby
I fear it won’t make a difference to the decision makers regardless of whether we are 1 or 21 points ahead. They have their own agenda. Always have had alwAys will have.

They’ll be contemplating already. A decision will be made BEFORE we are mathematically home and dry.

They’ve all got the pro hun virus. Interesting times ahead. What will Celtic do if it’s declared null and void?

JimmynotPaul

Stan Collymore tweeted that all games, in England, will be played behind closed doors and not allowed to be shown in pubs but households will be allowed to stream it.
Obviously that’s England, if true, then maybe Scotland will follow.
Cheltenham has just made it by the skin of its teeth.
It does seem crazy though, St Patrick’s parades cancelled all over Ireland, yet approximately 10,000 Irish, will return from Cheltenham, where everyone has been in very close proximity to each other.

Dharma Bam

BMCUWP,
Thanks for replying.

Yes, you’re right we need to win on Sunday to remove any room for argument.
In thes Glasgow derbies, I wonder if the sevco players are given extra strong irnbru and red bull the way they play the match!.

McCaff

Morning all!

Good article, BMCUWP. James Forrest Blog had an article yesterday which set out how the SPFL rules allow for the end of the season at any time under exceptional circumstances with the award of the trophy to the team at the top of the league at such a point. Unfortunately, I can’t c+p the link so if you want to have a look try googlin Jamesforrestblog LET’S TACKLE THIS NONSENSE ABOUT HOW THE GOVERNING BODIES MIGHT DECIDE THE LEAGUE TITLE FOR CELTIC.
It’s worth a read and if correct removes any doubt about how to proceed in the case of a shutdown.

big packy

MORNING ALL, great article as usual bobby, the way things are happening so fast, will the game be played on sunday?? joans mate who works in a doctors surgery in burnley, texted her last night, a bloke came in yesterday and said he had just come back from Italy and had a bad cough, wow panic stations surgery closed, the thing is he might not have it, but if he has he has put all those patients at risk, when the advice is to ring 111 and self isolate, some people just wont listen.hh.

McCaff

BMCUWP
CHrunchng!? Was that deliberate, as in the Bhoys, or a typo?

JimmynotPaul

B.P. 8.07.
What a selfish fool, that individual is.
Just staggering!!!
Why would anyone do that?

McCaff

Big Jim Packy

I posted this yesterday as part of a comment….

A young couple I know were in Rome last weekend, Friday to Monday. They were put out of their hotel on Saturday and told to leave. They just had to go straight to the airport and book a flight home…everywhere in Rome had closed to new arrivals. They have now self isolated for 7 days on medical advice!
Rather than wandering round the Italian capital on a romantic weekender they’re in a wee caravan enjoying the finest aspects of Ayrshire from a 2 foot square window with dirty net curtains!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

big packy

JNP, just crazy? MCAFF hope its not saltcoats, went there yesterday and it was closed?? that was for sol kitts?

SFTB

Very sensible article, BMCUWP. In the coming 3 months we are going to be mourning the loss of a few of the friends we have made on the blogosphere. The demographic of our favoured blogs suggests this will be the case. I hope its not me or you and I hope it’s not anyone but chances are we will all be shedding some tears over matters other than football.

Keep yourselves as safe as you can! Have a self-isolation party!

Good luck to us all!

JimmynotPaul

SFTB.
A very sensible post and I echo your thoughts.
I fall into high risk category and I was annoyed last week at how trivial people, virtually everywhere, were treating this and some were even joking about it.

Chairbhoy

Good Article BMCUWP,

It’s all getting a bit real now.

My daughter swithering over sending her son to school.

One of the parents has it… the pupil hasn’t but has been in self isolation from last week.

The school took the decision not to close or deep clean.

What to do!?

Tough one eh!!

On the fitbaw…

Obviously it all depends on timing but my take on it is this.

There is only one fair way to deal with the 2019/20 season if it’s canx.

Strike it from the records.

Play the 2020/21 Season as if we’ve just come off 2018/19.

Simples – anything else is unfair.

Hail Hail

A thing of beauty

According to SMS kristopher ajer will be looking to leave Celtic in The summer. Don’t let the door hit your arse on the way out kris though this is unlikely. You are more likely to run up to it, slide right underneath it and keep going till you get to Leicester. Great player in his own head.

Big Audio Dynamite

So Kris, your agent, speaking for you?! If he is you should be thankful I’m not the manager, you’d have already had your last opportunity to wear that famous jersey!

If it was my agent and wasn’t speaking for me, it would be his last comment, as I would part company with him today!

BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS

Ajmer would be better finishing his education with us,rather than be ragdolled down south. Butnif he won’t extend his contract,he can GTF. Billy Bigbaws.

ATHINGOFBEAUTY and BIGAUDIODYNAMITE are bang on.

BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS

McCAFF

Typo,good spot. Hopefully MAHE will amend it later.

Chairbhoy

SFtBs,

Very sobering and unless things drastically change, accurate assessment.

BAD…

It must be coming to the time for KA to negotiage his extended contract. I’d see this as an agent not liking the initial murmurings and taking a shot across Celtic’s bows.

Ajer is a regular in the Celtic defence now, yet hasn’t made the grade he was expected to as a 16 y.o. as AToB points out he’s really pretty mediocre. Another mediocre or even a poor season could see his value plummet.

Celtic PLC may be looking to cash in. They will be looking at the N’tcham situation, BR wouldn’t sell him when he was heading towards being a 10M player, what value is he now?

As I’ve expressed on many an occasion, I’m not in favour of the Boards transfer strategy i.e. putting economics before squad building, yet it is a fact of life at Parkhead.

So under those circumstances and the need to rebuild what is after all a shambles of a defensive squad, I could see him go.

Hail Hail

bada bing1

The Ajer ‘story ‘,is there a big game coming up?

Big Audio Dynamite

If Kris hasn’t sacked his agent already, you know where this has come from! If that’s the case, Surely tae fuck he can’t stay in the team? If you have your heart set on being elsewhere, you are not playing in the mean time. The more we act like a stepping stone, the more we will be treated as such.

Some c@nt please take that jersey off him…now!!!

jimthetim53

I think the close contact with players – tackles, falls etc – is a bigger risk than between fans at games.

Big Audio Dynamite

Bada, yeah we are all well used to that, but this has his agent directly quoted as saying he won’t be here next year.

Chairbhoy

But B.A.D., I understand your anger but that’s exactly how we market ourselves to these “prospects”, as a stepping stone, you can’t have it both ways.

Hail Hail

Big Audio Dynamite

Chairbhoy, I don’t want anything both ways, I want players who’s heads are in the game, up for the challenge! If his head is elsewhere, he has already left. Yes we all see things different, but if I was manager and found out Kris is saying this, he would already have played his last game.

Partizan

Real Madrid have put their entire operation into quarantine, and La Liga has been suspended for at least a fortnight.
The idea being floated of the season being completed behind closed doors is unworkable and will be quickly overtaken by players and whole teams being unavailable to play.

Chairbhoy

B.A.D.

I’m not sure this would be coming from the player but obviously is an indication of his mind-set.

Yet it’s a manifestation of the way Celtic operate. Look at the way they treated Lustig and Sinclair, two highly experienced players who wanted to be at Celtic Park wearing the hoops.

If we sell ourselves as a stepping stone and ruthlessly barter players what can we expect.

Hail Hail

Oglach

Despite our not wanting it to be a fact Celtic FC are seen as a stepping stone toward most players dream – a lucrative contract in the EPL or championship. Even our own home grown hero’s trot off down south when an EPL team flashes it’s moneyed knickers. KT anyone. It really is the only way we can entice the likes of VVD, Vic, Fraser,Eddy and Mousa to Celtic. And lest we forget we have had to kiss an awful lot (fecking huge amount actually) of toads before we found these guys. The days of the Henke Larsson type player remaining at Celtic for years is very much in the past.

Of course we should also add that the boards desire to sell the family jewels at the 1st opportunity is also a big plus for talented players looking to put themselves in the shop window. ” Do well there son and the greedy bas*ards will have you sold in no time”

Kris Ajer, if true, can GTF lets see how long he lasts in the EPL diving into numerous challenges. That is if a decent EPL team would be interested in the 1st instance. At the moment he, at best, is mid table English championship standard. But having said that he will probably earn considerably more playing there than in the SPFL.

Big Audio Dynamite

CB, do we sel! ourselves as a stepping stone? or is it just a fact of where we are in the grand scheme? When you go to places like Ibrox, you need men, warriors, not someone who is already counting an imaginary bank account. They just wouldn’t be in my team!

Big Audio Dynamite

Celtic being treated like some empty station you just pass through on your way to brighter lights, drives me bananas!

Oglach

BAD

but that is how we market ourselves. Aren’t we trying to tempt Eddy to stay for 10IAR by offering him a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ that we will sell him after 10 is in the bag? Wasn’t that how BR tempted Mousa to Celtic – develop here son, put yourself in the shop window at the same time and the big move will come. Scott Brown is likely to be the last player who remains at Celtic for the majority of their career. Fact is few if any players now aren’t motivated by money. Winning trophies in Scotland means little when compared with mega £ multi season contracts. Stuart Armstrong for instance – mostly a Southampton bench warmer earning huge amounts of dosh when he could have been racking up the medals and still earning a decent amount of money in Scotland.

fan-a-tic

If the Ajer story is true then he is no great loss.
Poor defender who has some great upfield runs.
People say he is still young and can improve.
Not if game intelligence is absent.
He has had a few season’s in that role and the same defensive frailties/failings are still there.

bada bing1
bada bing1

Mass gatherings of more than 500 people, to be banned in Scotland from Monday

jimthetim53

Will Orange Walks be banned?

Oglach

bada bing1
Mass gatherings of more than 500 people, to be banned in Scotland from Monday
=================
Now why after Sunday ? Do the Scots have immunity from contracting Corona 19 until Monday? Strange +50k expected at probably the largest sporting event in the UK this weekend at the crumble dome on Sunday crammed in together shouting and spitting basically a veritable huge petri dish of biological harm. But no we will wait until Monday.
Strange one indeed. Just play the game behind closed doors FFS and have Sevco refund all their ticket holders and caterers etc etc

The Schumann Resonance

Kris Ajer??

The lad has always praised Celtic fc to the high heaven’s.

I think he wants out while he still has two functional legs!

Read his comments after the Aberdeen game at Celtic park in which Cosgrove(I think) tried to half him in two.

Only my opinion but his words after that game say quite a lot.

Big Audio Dynamite

Oglach, I’m well aware of our position but, for me, I just can’t feel that way about Celtic (obv), and the whole situation drives me to distraction. There are 1000s of footballers, I just want 11 who want to wear that jersey!

Chairbhoy

Partizan @ 12:03,

Agreed…

Also if the Real Madrid Quarantine leads to suspension of UEFA Club competitions then I suspect domestic fixtures will follow. The reality is dawning…

Hail Hail

Mike in Toronto

Seriously? If we want a decent level of player, we have to accept that Celtic will be seen as a stepping stone….

If we are going to take the hump unless players commit their undying fealty to Celtic, we are going to rule out every foreign player (because, honestly, who dreams of coming to a, at best, semi-decent team, which plays in a glorified pub league?)…

so, we can either have players being dishonest, and saying I love you, and then bolting as soon the first chance comes (but no one seems to love BR, although he habitually professed his love for the club)….

or we can accept that we will sign mediocre players who see Celtic as the apex of their career ….

or we can accept that players will come for a season or two, get some experience of Scottish and Euro football, and then look for a move to a bigger platform, or at least a bigger pay cheque…. because, that is what most players are going to do… even compared to when HL, the gulf between what we can pay and what big clubs can pay has grown….. so, you aren’t going to see too many more Larssons… that’s just the reality…

as for the agent? If KA really didn’t want it, there would be an issue between him and the agent … but, I suspect that he is just doing what he is supposed to do ..

the agents job it to drum up interest in his client, and to take the heat for the client … sounds like the guy is just doing his job…

Celtic is just a business for everyone except the fans … however, if the fans treated it more like a business, instead of some teenage fantasy, the fans would be treated a lot better, and cheated a lot less…

JimmynotPaul

Tweet from Chris Sutton, below, calling Scot Gov out.

Nicola Sturgeon along with the UK government wants to cancel gatherings of 500 or more next week… shithousery of the highest order with the Rangers Celtic game on Sunday…

Chairbhoy

Big Audio Dynamite @ 12:13

“CB, do we sel! ourselves as a stepping stone? or is it just a fact of where we are in the grand scheme?…

It’s both, the fact is Celtic have always been a selling Club as long as I remember. We now actively market ourselves as such, that’s the difference.

As Olgach says, the days of keeping players as long as we can like Dalglish or Henke, that’s a thing of the past.

We make no effort, in fact the opposite.

…When you go to places like Ibrox, you need men, warriors, not someone who is already counting an imaginary bank account. They just wouldn’t be in my team!

Well, surely this is the cruix of the matter.

My feelings are our three worst results this season were

Clug UCL at Home
Rangers New Year at Home
Copenhagen EUL at Home

We had “better” players than all those teams but in each case the opposition wanted it more than our ghuys. Merceneries will only take you so far…

MiT

Totally agree…

Hail Hail

Joshua Peck

I will take a draw on Sunday

The Gombeen Man

Crunching the numbers?

Leo Varadkar states that 50% – 60% of the population in Ireland are likely to contract the disease.

The population here is 4.92m.

Mortality Rate is unclear because it’s unknown how many have had the disease and are either unaware or just self-isolate. Hopefully the % Mortality Rate is lower than the 3% talked about.

Also the age demographic will have an influence, smokers, underlying health, impact of containment, standard of health care, factors that  possibly differ country to country.

4.92 x 50% = 2.46m projected to be infected in Ireland.

Mortality Rates

1% = 24600

2% = 49200

3% = 73800 deaths.

60% Infection Rate.

4.92 x 60% = 2,952m

1% x 2,95m = 29,500

2% = 59k

3% = 88k deaths.

That’s 6,000 less than the population of Limerick.

In the UK?

Population of 67m

50% infection rate

67 x 50% = 33.5m

Mortality Rates,

1% = 335k

2% = 670k

3% = 1.01m

60% infection rate = 40m infected.

1% = 400k

2% = 800k

3% = 1.2m

The combined population of Glasgow and Edinburgh is 1.1m.

USA,

Population of 330m

50% = 165m

Mortality Rate

1% = 1.65m

2% = 3.3m

3% = 4.95m.

60% infection rate = 198m

Mortality Rate,

1% = 1.98m

2% = 3.96m

3% = 5.94m.

Los Angeles has a population of 3.9m

Hopefully my number crunching is wrong. This presents a really significant challenge to all of us, including the police and everyone involved in keeping things together.

With a global population of 7.7bn, I’ll leave that to your calculations…

Big Audio Dynamite

CB, our capt is here a decade. 2 of our best prospects in a generation look like they will play their whole careers with us, and I’d bet money they’ve had lots of offers.

How do we square this with those who want progress in Europe? How in hell are we supposed to do that, if we can never build a settled team. Please don’t think I don’t understand our position, I do, but I want players committed while they are in that jersey.

Whoever is telling people we are just a stepping stone, should stop it immediately! Is that all we are and can be? it makes me sick!

fan-a-tic

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