Unintended Consequences, And Not Thinking It Through.

Morning,all.

Harold Wilson told us that a week is a long time in politics. Well,it’s a blink of an eye in football. Only a week ago,I wrote the following in the article for 23rd of March.

“But these are exceptional times,and as such,exceptional measures may be considered to tide clubs over in their time of need. Would the SFA possibly be amenable to the fabled pre-pack administration much loved by certain entrepreneurs and businessmen? Perhaps if they were notified in advance by say Hearts and Rangers and possibly one or two others,they could give the all-clear,announce the end of the season table based on points deductions along with a one-off fourteen team SPL for next year,with three down to Follow Follow. Additionally that the Scottish Cup would be withheld this season due to the crisis.

Everyone’s a winner as no-one loses,just as I said in an earlier article. Hearts stay up-and solvent-Rangers stay in business until the next time. One or two clubs shed some debt that’s been hanging round their necks like a millstone. The only losers here are Celtic. We get nine in a row,sure. But we don’t get to celebrate it,and there will certainly be an asterisk put beside that one in the record books! On top of that,it scuppers our march to a fourth treble. Hell,they’ll probably split the SPL prize money an even twelve ways because they bloody well can.”

Just to prove that we aren’t paranoid enough,there is now serious talk of doing exactly the above-but with the added garnish of declaring the season null and void,thus robbing us of our title! Now,the main reason I didn’t think that they would do that is because the clubs would have to repay all the ticket money received over the duration of the null and void season,but if they go into administration,that debt dies along with any others. So the only clubs who would suffer are the well-run ones who avoid administration but have to repay fans from their own coffers.

As it stands,I expect all the full-time clubs in Scotland to accept any waiver of the normal rules on insolvency events,unless they have a watertight Business Interruption insurance policy. These,of course,don’t come cheap. And even those clubs who have paid their premiums on this type of policy might be advised to test just how watertight that policy is before they decide against following the administration route. It’s an absolute mess at the moment,and I don’t think that declaring the season null and void is a sensible option. Equally,I don’t think that encouraging clubs down the path of a pre-pack administration is sending out the right signals either. But these are strange times,and we are dealing with unprecedented problems. Making the rules up as you go along is just the very thing that the SFA/SPFL do best,and with the current virus crisis they can really show their creative thinking at its very best!

Now you and I,as paranoid Tims of long-standing,will know that this avenue is really only being explored for the benefit of one club. That being able to offer the carrot to the whole of the Scottish game just when they might need it is like a Get Out of Jail card for them. We all know that the huns are living on borrowed time,and had been for a very long time. We all know that they’ve been living on borrowed money for their entire existence too. In fact,it was his refusal to pony up another half a million to cover his share of the £1.5m shortfall in the March wage bill that led to the departure of Dave King from the scene. The shortfall would have been more than double that amount had their game against Leverkusen not gone ahead the night before football was suspended. Even if they do pre-pack,their operating costs will still remain at around £50m per season,and way above their income. And since they can’t administrate their way out of football debts,those outstanding transfer fee instalments will still have to be made.

And the large debt to Close Bros cannot be written off in a pre-pack,because they took surety of property and assets against that loan. So they might not be Sevco anymore,but they will still be carrying Sevco’s operating costs and a large part of their debt. In fact,their third coming might not even last as long as their second one,as I imagine that some of their “funding fathers” might see it as an opportunity to get the hell out of Dodge,explaining that they have done their best,they lost a great deal of money when Sevco went bust,and they feel it is only fair to carry the can for the failure. Nothing to do with snapping up the chance to put an end to their own cash being pissed up against a wall.

Nothing good will come out of this course of action. The fans will be raging at getting no money back for a season that didn’t exist,sponsors and advertisers ditto. TV companies will be wondering whether splashing out on our game is worth it when then goalposts can be moved on a whim. Celtic will be beelin’ at watching less-prudent clubs getting away with murder,while they bleed their cash reserves on doing the right thing. It’s like watching the council rebuilding your neighbour’s house for him because it burnt down and he had no insurance. The fact that he was playing with matches and a canister of petrol and didn’t listen to your warnings cuts no ice,nor does the fact that his fire damaged your home and you have to pay for that damage yourself.

I don’t want Celtic to try to stop this from happening if it is the only way that some clubs in Scotland can survive all of this. After all,we will need teams around to play when football starts up again. But I do expect them to fight the suggestion of a null and void season,because it is the worst option of all of those available. It will not solve the problems that currently exist,because teams which were looking good for titles,whether that be us or those going for promotion,are the only ones which are being punished here. There are two alternatives available,and these options should be kept open. The first is to finish the season at the earliest available opportunity,and the viability of that option is being overtaken by events on a daily basis. The second is to award the titles on the basis of average points won per game,and promote that team plus the team finishing second. European places awarded on the same basis. With no relegation,that would mean having a different set up for the SPL next season and two new teams coming in at the bottom tier. Keep it that way for a year,and the year after impose a three down,one up on each division. Job done. Because,think of it this way. If we null and void the season,what’s to stop UEFA doing the same thing with their competitions? Scotland would no longer have been deemed to have been on a terrific run in the European rankings. Our coefficient would be ratcheted back to its previous lowly status.

Oh dear,what a shambles that will be when the huns realise that their Champions League place for finishing second in future has been taken away from them!

If you’re gonna lie and cheat,best make sure that there are no unintended consequences. This whole null and void idea has plenty of them.

******

Above article by BMCUWP

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Auldheid

The history of the ten point deduction and reason for its introduction should be part of any consideration of points deduction, but it being Scotland and the beneficiary of a force majeure pardon being TRFC/RIFC then it will not be considered or will be dismissed.

Briefly Neil Warnock (Sheffield Utd) cried foul on Leicester City who beat Utd to a promotion place whilst undergoing form of insolvent reconstruction. https://www.wsc.co.uk/the-archive/13-Editorials/2483-the-disadvantage-rule

Warnock’s argument was that Leicester gained an on field advantage from paying players over the odds rather than creditors what they were due, whilst Utd paid their way. The FA listened, agreed and introduced the ten points deduction rule to offset the advantage gained and deter clubs from choosing insolvency as a way out from paying their debts. The SFA followed a year or more later.

it is a pity Rod McKenzie did not acquaint Lord Nimmo Smith with this history during his Commission.

If only we had domestic financial fair play rules to establish if a club was acting in an unsustainable manner then there might be a chance that TRFC would get a points deduction if they entered administration this season, but without it, how could it be proved they gained advantage and what rules would it be breaking to make a sanction stand?

TRFC are morally as well as financially bankrupt.

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AULDHEID

Totally agree. No rule is passed in Scotland which might disadvantage the huns. ‘Twas always thus.

Twists n Turns

Morning
Catching up from previous thread.

Kev J

Would’ve helped had the woman on the rant in the video shut up for just 5 seconds and let us hear an answer.

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TWISTSNTURNS

I suspect it’s just another scaremongering attempt at disinformation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/uk-anti-fake-news-unit-coronavirus

Thetic

Ranger 1 -2 and 3 in the future will all die from the same virus” Europeancup 67”

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THETIC

So true. And to think that their final points tally for this season was 67. Kinda fitting,really.

Thetic

Bmcuwp I hope their 67 points is frozen for all time
Good morning Timland I am just going to sleep in in peace knowing of their discomfort

big packy

MORNING ALL, bobby, who are you calling paranoid?? great post as usual?

big packy

KEVJ, apologies, just noticed your josef locke vid from last night, cheers?

JimmynotPaul

Morning all.
ASWGL.
I’m loving the new background, thanks buddy.

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BIGPACKY

Not paranoid enough,mate. Pays to be on yer toes with this lot.

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JIMMYNOTPAUL

Aye,it’s a belter. As you say-thanks,ASWGL!

BobbyM
Maybes if the governments stopped peddling fear and fake news folks wouldn’t look elsewhere for the truth.
Take Dr Mike Ryan for example, he is the head of emergency at the WHO, on more than one occasion in the past few weeks he has said on national TV that lockdowns DO NOT work, so in one breath we are being told to listen to the WHO, but when they are telling us something that the governments don’t want to hear it’s ignored, why then are the western governments enforcing lockdowns ? when they are being told from the head medical man at the WHO that they DO NOT work
The truth is out there but it’s not coming from the governments.
Good article btw.
HH

big packy

TET, nice to see you posting, how are things where you are.hh,

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THEEXILEDTIM

As he praised China for their reaction to the outbreak there,I reckon that he felt that lockdowns do work. Whether they work or not remains to be seen,but allowing day to day activity to continue in the face of such a highly contagious virus would have been madness. IMO,of course.

BP
We are fine all things considered.
HH
BobbyM
You conveniently skirted round the information that he gave to the UK people, Oh and he didn’t say that it had worked in China if you actually listen to what he said.
Lots of other country’s are not locking down their people, it doesn’t seem to be doing them any harm in the grand scheme of things.
Now if they were to lock down everyone at the same time, but as that is not practical…….beware a second wave.
I have a horrible feeling that the herd immunity will be the answer.
HH

JimmynotPaul

Hey McCaff.
I know you frequent Shawlands, what a lovely idea.
AN Italian Takeaway in Shawlands has launched a Pay It Forward campaign to allow customers to pay for dinners for frontline workers.

Piatto, on Skirving Street, have launched a scheme where customers are able to donate to a crowdfunder, with the entire donation going towards feeding frontline workers for free.

Owner, Kieran Paterson, said: “It started with customers coming and donating to us in person, then the lockdown happened.

“We still had customers asking how they could donate so we decided to launch the Crowdfunder so that people could donate without having to come into the shop.”

Before the lockdown came into place, the popular Italian takeaway allowed customers to come in a donate to the fund and post their donation on the wall.

Piatto have created over 450 boxes of pasta so far, which they have been delivering to frontline NHS workers in wards and hospitals working to fight against the coronavirus outbreak.

Kieran has said that anyone with any ideas of nurses, doctors, homeless shelter or even carers who could do with a delivery should get in touch to arrange.

“It’s not just the doctors and nurse, we’re talking right down to cleaners and everyone else in between.

“If anyone wants a delivery, please get in touch through our social media, Instagram is best, and we can organise to get a delivery of food to you.

“Every penny that is donated goes towards the ingredients and the delivery”.

“We’re not taking any profit, it’s all about the Pay It Forward scheme and doing something for others in need.

The Gombeen Man

“The danger right now with the lockdowns … if we don’t put in place the strong public health measures now, when those movement restrictions and lockdowns are lifted, the danger is the disease will jump back up.”

Dr Mike Ryan.

The truth about the exponential growth with this disease hasn’t really been discussed. The virus isn’t passing like Storm Denis. It’s here and it’s going nowhere.

Exponential growth was explained to me with an an example using a penny or cent…

Day 1: $.01
Day 2: $.02
Day 3: $.04
Day 4: $.08
Day 5: $.16
Day 6: $.32
Day 7: $.64
Day 8: $1.28
Day 9: $2.56
Day 10: $5.12
Day 11: $10.24
Day 12: $20.48
Day 13: $40.96
Day 14: $81.92
Day 15: $163.84
Day 16: $327.68
Day 17: $655.36
Day 18: $1,310.72
Day 19: $2,621.44
Day 20: $5,242.88
Day 21: $10,485.76
Day 22: $20,971.52
Day 23: $41,943.04
Day 24: $83,886.08
Day 25: $167,772.16
Day 26: $335,544.32
Day 27: $671,088.64
Day 28: $1,342,177.28
Day 29: $2,684,354.56
Day 30: $5,368,709.12

Lockdowns only slow the rate of infection and allow mild suffers to develop (hopefully) an immunity.

(Tuberculosis killed 1.5 million people in 2018, we don’t hear much about that but it’s interesting how high a percentage in the west carry this disease in it’s latent form and it’s only triggered if something comprimises the immune system for example.)

As Mike Ryan suggests the only short term approach we have at the moment is a very gradual relaxation of lockdown followed by the most vigorous testing and follow up we’ve ever seen.

The dithering or denial of politicians allowed the exponential growth curve to become firmly established.

Ireland hopes to launch a smart phone app that’s borrowed from Asia that tracks where you’ve been and who you’ve been in contact with shortly.

As posted before 50/60/80% of 67million people is a very big number.

A 1/2/3% mortality rate of that is huge.

Trump last night admitted that without isolation the US were looking at 1-2 million deaths. Unless there is follow up the lockdown only defers that…or a bigger number.

Ireland is projected to begin its peak on Good Friday, April 10th.

There’s something curious about that.

They are attempting to manage that peak by manipulating the rate of exposure by locking down.

In itself it buys time and allows for more preparation. It isn’t a cure, Covid-19 will still be there that’s where testing, tracking, isolation come in until a vaccine or treatment is found.

China isn’t out of the woods yet and there is something curious in their numbers. Asia has learned lessons from previous experiences with SARs.

The lockdown really buys time and a more gradual exposure to the virus with a health system that’s better prepared.

A controlled herd if you will. That’s possibly what Mike Ryan means by “strong public health measures.”

Boris and Donald were leading us into a stampede.

The Long Good Friday.

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THEEXILEDTIM

And you’re still on the first half of the chessboard!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem

Big Audio Dynamite

Was so looking forward to seeing Peter Hook’s Joy Division concert in a few weeks…but just found out it has been put back till Jan 2021! That’s gonna be almost 18 months, me and my mate will have had these tickets!

No he didn’t, read what he said again, he praised them for their rapid response, lockdowns will only work if other additional measures are put in place and the west are NOT doing that, hence they won’t work, ffs a half wit can see that.
Look Mick, you can believe the stuff that the government is feeding you, fine, I will believe what I believe, if I get sick and die from this, it’s my time, but please forgive me for not believing the crap that the western governments are spouting.

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THEEXILEDTIM

OK,lockdowns don’t work. Let’s all party like it’s 1999. See how far that gets you. I’m not a great believer in official information either,as you know. But I think it’s fair to say that the chances of catching a contagious disease are significantly reduced if you are not in contact with any source of contagion.

In which case,suck it up because the current advice is the best around.

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BIGAUDIODYNAMITE

January’s usually a dead month anyway. Gives you something to look forward to!

Aye Mick, there is no need for the sarky comments, you are better than that.

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THEEXILEDTIM

That wasn’t sarcasm,and no offence was intended.

S Korea, Japan, Cambodia, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, Hong Kong, Singapore, all with extensive trade links and some with borders to China, none went into lock down, a massive population and all have little spread of the virus.
Maybes they should go into lock down as the west is doing, or maybes they did the right thing in the beginning and tested, contact traced and isolated before it was too late.
The west has fucked it up big time, why because of the money and I fear that they are gonna suffer in the long run.
So the west lift their lockdowns and 000’s with the virus are still walking around, that’s some strategy, I shit more brains away on a daily basis than the ejits that run the western governments.

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Big Audio Dynamite

Don’t be fooled that they mean “Crown” when they say Corona ..they really mean the SUN. The people who run this shit-show are all sun worshippers. It is absolutely no coincidence you are being fed your info by two guys with the names Boris Johnson and Rishi (Ray of Light) Sunak.

Hidden in plain sight.

McCaff

BMCUWP and TET
I’ve had a wee read at the Ryan interview you posted, Mick. The interviewer is obviously coming at it from a different angle from the West in that she’s really more concerned with the Middle East and Asian humanitarian issues. My take away from it all was this quote from Ryan;

“If a country has few cases or a few clusters, we are going to push them to do containment and to do contact-tracing and case-finding. But if we take the example of Italy with nearly 1,700 cases a day, they may have to give up on contact-tracing for a few days until they push the infection down and then maybe go back to tracing.

We are trying to be a strong and transparent adviser to our member states without losing our relationship with countries. If a country persistently will not implement, then we will have to step up and say what is not acceptable or good enough. We find that to be much more functional. People criticised us for praising China six weeks ago. The amount of abuse that Tedros got, that I got, that we were lackeys of China, all the abuse on social media. It was terrible. Six weeks later, China is not doing too bad, is it? We were not doing it based on politics; we were doing it based on what we observed and what we could see as scientists. They still aren’t out of the woods, but…

We will offer praise where we can. We said the same about Singapore, about [South] Korea. And each of these countries used a different strategy. Singapore has not closed its schools or closed itself off; it never locked down. It focused very much on case-finding and contact-tracing, on what it perceived would be very much accepted by the population.”

This appears to be a vindication of China’s lockdown but he also acknowledges the different approach form other countries as being successful. Notably, he is also aware that they are not regulatory and as such have no jurisdiction over countries – he admits as much elsewhere in the article – so is relying on good relationships to find a solution to the issue.

A word of caution would be that as far as the old Communist Bloc countries are concerned you can take official statements from Government or Government Agencies at face value only. They have a tendency to hide failures rather than display them for the world to see!

Dearie Me Mick, look at the figures, on second thoughts just forget it,

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BIGAUDIODYNAMITE

Sun worshippers confined to barracks? Good stuff.

Big Audio Dynamite

Bobby, they don’t need to hide in their houses mate, they aren’t under any threat. No, they just want you locked up in yours.

Big Audio Dynamite

While you hide in the house …

https://youtu.be/Hl7nN3qUgBM

Big Audio Dynamite

Big Jock captaining Celtic v Kilmarnock in the cup 1955

https://youtu.be/Ndxls-jsbUY

Big Audio Dynamite

McCaff
Just the other week we were at the hospital seeing the cardiologist, he wasn’t wearing a mask or didn’t have any gloves on either, as we were leaving he remarked that if one positive was going to come from this, at least there will be very little flu deaths this year.
Numbers eh
HH
BAD
As the world sleeps Sunset Boulevard in Vegas is getting a make over, they are ripping up the palm trees and replacing them with fake palm trees, it will come as no surprise to you that the fake trees just so happen to have 5G transmitters installed on them
HH

JimmynotPaul

Well now.
French professional football will not receive TV rights for matches which no longer take place. Canal + and BeIn Sport will no longer pay the professional football league (LFP) the € 152,000,000 they would have paid on April 5, 2020.

McCaff

JNP
Well if that’s not a precedent I’m not sure what is, Canal Plus are also a Broadcasting partner of the EPL. If they’ve decided they’re not paying out it’s only a matter of time before SKY and BT decide they’re not gonna pay either! Peter’s Pence are now more crucial than ever we imagined they would be but what of the negative balance at The Rangers, Hearts and any other clubs which are down in the dumps just now? Scary times indeed!!
I saw the stuff from the Italian restaurant – nice gesture indeed – particularly as they included homeless shelters in it!

Big Audio Dynamite

TET, once you realise they pulled off telling us we are really just monkeys, nothing should ever come as a surprise again.

It’s like the whole world is comatose.

big packy

AFTERNNON BHOYS, big audio dynamite, cheers pal?

Big Audio Dynamite

BP ?

HH

Margaret McGill

S Korea..massive early correct response and blanket testing and isolation of positives.
Japan massive early correct response and blanket testing most hygenic country in the world . shut down its schools
Hong Kong/Singapore. Island states. Closed borders massive testing and isolation of positives

Cambodia Vietnam Thailand .. I wouldnt believe any official statistic out of these countries

The western nations lockdown response because of fuck up after fuck up because they dont want to shut down the economy. Just like the football. Still fucking around.

The Gombeen Man

The lockdown is trying to put a lid on it because they laughed at it and ignored what was happening.

A couple of weeks ago Sevco were allowed to play at a packed Ibrox v Leverkusen.
Madness. We were days away from playing Sevco at Ibrox.

I know from personal experience, in Ireland, that Covid-19 patients have been treated in the same wards as general patients.
Test results are days behind. Test results have been lost. Medical staff have had very limited access to PPE equipment and have either caught the virus or are now unable to work because they are self-isolating.
Things got so bad that staff were reluctant to answer the bells of suspected Covid-19 patients.

My nephew is attending a scheduled appointment at a hospital this week for an infusion and has been advised to burn his clothes when he leaves.

The Asian countries mentioned have had experience in dealing with SARs, our arrogance led us to ignore the warnings.

Isolating will only work if it’s followed by generalised tests to confirm who has it, who doesn’t have it and who has developed an immunity.

It’s then down to tracking, highlighting hot spots and the old/vulnerable trying to dodge it or taking their chances with the health system when necessary.

It’s no surprise that one Scottish Local Authority I am aware of has been scrambling to acquire refrigerated containers.

big packy

just been out for our 1 hour walk with the dogs, coming down the narrow country lane, a chap is coming past on the other side, we move over out of his way, just then one of the dogs had a poo, I bent down to pick it up, he said good morning, the wife said good morning back, he only stands there till I picked the poo up and says in a loud voice GOOD MORNNG, I said oh sorry mate im just social distancing, trying to make a joke out of it, so am I he said, but you could be polite about it,ffs some people?

McCaff

Big Jim Packy
In typical Lanarkshire fashion, I assume ye threw a bag’o’shite at ‘im!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

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