SENTINELCELTS

Morning,all.

Once again,the fabled European Super League has reared its ugly head into The Beautiful Game. Like Banquo’s Ghost,or just a wee jobby that won’t go away no matter how many times you flush,it is once again getting an airing,a day in the sun. 

Except that it hasn’t this time,not really. Yes,the newspapers have had a few articles detailing the latest grand plans,but hardly the wall-to-wall coverage and ensuing outrage of the first proposals less than two years ago. And the details,such as they are,are sketchy indeed. 

None of the original suggestions have survived,including the recruitment of twelve big-name teams who would be permanent members. This time,the ESL will consist of three or four divisions comprising between sixty and eighty teams,with the normal footballing troubles and strife such as relegation. 

Interestingly,none of the potential members has been mentioned by name,suggesting it is far from oven ready-as does the whole announcement,which looks like something someone drew up on a napkin after a particularly boozy lunch. There is no mention of how the clubs will deal with restrictions imposed by the national and international associations/federations,though they still insist that all clubs would continue as before inside their domestic league structure. 

Well,that might appease the domestic leagues,though I doubt that. But it sounds the death knell for clubs wishing to play in Champions League,Europa Cup and Conference. So UEFA will be mightily pissed off once they stop pissing themselves laughing. 

One of the “selling points” put forward by the international consultancy group hired to make the case for it all is the return of around £300m pa to the member associations for dispersal amongst the rump left behind. I can’t see that flying at all. There are over fifty UEFA members from the nation states involved,which doesn’t amount to much each,and probably only about £10m or so for the bigger ones. Like England. 

When you consider that the EPL distributes around £350m pa to the non-EPL divisions,it really is a kite that won’t fly. As when the original plans were released,all parties with vested interests will simply kick out those plans,and any side tempted to join. And why would the bigger clubs especially have any interests in a fledgling idea which will bring in less than any income from UEFA competition,much less the money merry-go-round of the domestic leagues on top of that?

No,it is another non-starter in my opinion. There may be an appetite for it somewhere,but until there is a concrete proposal which can guarantee increased income and competition for competing clubs AND for UEFA and the national organisations and can get the blessing of the lower league sides and the money that goes with that,nobody will sign up. 

Sponsors won’t batter down their door,nor TV companies,not without the entire structure already planned in detail,members all signed up,associations giving their blessing,etc. And the members won’t sign up without those guarantees in the first place! Sponsors and TV companies would be concerned about losing UEFA access,and so too would the teams.

Which brings me in a roundabout way to Manchester United,and the ongoing saga of its imminent sale. Apparently the Glaziers want £6bn for it,or around a thousand times what Michael Knighton agreed to buy it for in the late 80s. Given that any new owner will have to spend another billion and more to rebuild the stadium and the training ground,pay off accumulated debt of another half a billion and spend lavishly-and probably more wisely than in the last decade-to get a competitive side,I can’t see that happening either. Not at those valuations. 

And especially not if they are being asked to take a flyer on a hare-brained scheme like above,one specifically designed to end the financial domination possessed by the EPL clubs. Qatar has been recently suggested as a possible,and that might be difficult when you consider their ownership of PSG. Can they persuade UEFA and the EPL of a separation of ownership and cross-cooperation of the two clubs,sufficiently enough to allow both to play in competition against each other?

Well,they allowed RB Leipzig and Red Bull Salzburg to not only compete in the same competition,but in the same bliddy group-ours,by the way!-a few years back. So anything is possible. Will they be allowed that dual ownership if the new owners are strongly suspected of planning to join a breakaway league? 

Will the new owners even be interested in a new league which is likely to heavily reduce TV and sponsor money when they have just splashed a near eleven figure sum on their latest toy? Who knows,maybe the Glazers have made the first wise decision in their many years of ownership at United,read the runes for future income sources and decided to get out at the top of the market. I think the American owners at Liverpool are probably doing the same,and for the same reasons. 

I’m not saying that the EPL bubble is burst. It isn’t. But I think there is a much reduced potential for income growth in the short to medium term. And that’s while costs and fees are skyrocketing again. And that’s why the Glazers haven’t exactly been overwhelmed by a rush of interest in what is still one of the biggest clubs in the world. 

The prospect of a new ESL is not an enticing one for any of the top teams,not as it stands. And certainly not for the ones in England. And that makes the purchase costs of buying one of them far from enticing too. Sometimes when you decide to sell at the top of the market,it has turned while you figure out just how to do it. And sometimes when you announce plans for a new and disruptive competition,it is better to have figured out in advance how to make it work. 

The Glaziers  will still come out on the right side of the ledger on their investment over the years. Just not as much as they had expected. But the ESL? There is much work to do to make it viable,and even more to make it attractive enough to have a chance. I doubt that is likely,and I hope it never is.

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Above article by BMCUWP